无协议脱欧风险加剧致英国GDP预期下调

发布时间：2019-10-22 8:30 

文章来源 | ECONOMIA

英国商会（BCC）对2019年英国GDP的增长预测从1.3%下降到了1.2%。

该商会（BCC）表示，日前预计2020年将进一步从1.0%降至0.8%，但2021年仍将保持1.2%不变。

此前，ICAEW也对英国经济前景做出了类似的预测。ICAEW认为基于脱欧带来的不稳定性，商业投资的下降和产出的减少，英国GDP的增长会从1.5%下降到1.1%。

英国商会（BCC）总干事亚当·马歇尔（Adam Marshall）表示：“即使在几周内能够有序地退出欧盟，英国经济仍将面临许多问题。”

“不可否认的是，脱欧带来的不稳定性确实给商业带来了沉重打击。另外，除了要与欧盟达成协定，政府还需要为英国商业投资制定新的激励政策，并且要无条件支持大型基础设施项目来促进英国经济的增长。 ”

就目前商业环境的糟糕现状，英国董事学会(Institute of Directors, loD)要求英国和欧盟在脱欧的问题上能够达成妥协。

首相Boris Johnson和他的政府一直表示如果不能达成协议，他们将在10月31日尝试推动无协议脱欧。但议会上周通过的法案旨在阻止这一进程。

IoD调查发现，与无协议脱欧相比，一部分人更希望能延长《里斯本条约》第50条。但这两种选择都引起了商界领袖的担忧，大多数人更希望达成协议。（根据《里斯本条约》50条规定，有退欧意向的成员国需要与欧盟进行为期两年的协商，如果两年的协商无法达成一致，只有全部成员国同意才可延长谈判期限。）

IoD 的欧洲和贸易政策负责人Allie Renison说：“企业正面临着一种不可能的局面，因为他们必须提前做好准备，应对可能同时发生并且规模空前的全面变革。无协议脱欧确实是一个很大的问题，但是一再拖延并且毫无进展对公司而言也是非常不利的。”

将近三分之一的IoD成员表示即将开始为可能的脱欧制定应急搬迁计划，14%的成员表示，他们已经开始行动了。

UK GDP forecast down as no-deal threat increases

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has dropped its UK GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 1.3% to 1.2%

A further cut from 1.0% to 0.8% in 2020 is now predicted but 2021 remains unchanged at 1.2% in 2021, said the business group. 

It follows a similar downgraded economic outlook from ICAEW, which last week reduced its GDP predictions from 1.5% to 1.1%, against a background of continuing Brexit uncertainty, falling business investment and declining output.

“Our latest forecast shows a number of warning lights are flashing for the UK economy, even if we are able to avoid a messy and disorderly exit from the EU in just a few weeks’ time,” said Adam Marshall, director general of the BCC. 

“There’s no dancing round the fact that Brexit uncertainty has hit business investment hard. In addition to reaching a negotiated settlement with the EU, the government should be preparing big new incentives for business investment in the UK, and should reconfirm its unconditional backing for the big infrastructure projects our economy needs to unlock growth, he added. 

Also today, the Institute of Directors (IoD) has called on the UK and EU to compromise to chart a way forward on Brexit. It says businesses are facing an “impossible situation”. 

Prime minister Boris Johnson and his government have been steadfast in their willingness to attempt to push through no-deal Brexit on October 31st if no agreement is struck, despite a a bill passed in Parliament last week that aims to stop it. 

The IoD’s survey found that a slim majority would prefer a further extension of Article 50 over a no-deal Brexit, but that both options raised concerns among business leaders. Most would prefer a deal was agreed. 

“Firms are facing an impossible situation as they try to prepare in advance for the possibility of simultaneous sweeping changes on an unprecedented level. The idea of leaving the EU without a deal in place is certainly the bigger concern, but the prospect of repeated delays with no clear path forward is far from an appetizing prospect for enterprise,” said Allie Renison, head of Europe and Trade Policy at the IoD. 

Nearly a third of IoD members have started “engaging” with relocation as part of their Brexit contingency planning, with 14% indicating they had already moved operations or were in the process of doing so.